The Big Question Among Forest Products Industry And Home Building Players
Has Been: Where Will Lumber Prices Land After All The Disruptions To
Business Of The Past Four Years?
One thing that provides a good indication is that most housing construction
lumber prices are currently at or very close to the levels of May 2023. As
previously explained by Madison’s, the price trend line for most softwood
lumber commodities was quite flat through last year.
Now, as new home construction as well as remodelling season would normally
be under way, this ongoing soft market has brought lumber prices to within
line of the same time last year. As yet there has not been the increase in
sales volumes of wood which would normally happen by late spring.
Sawmills and lumber manufacturers have been indicating there are more
curtailments and more downtime coming if demand does not noticeably
increase.
In the week ending May 10, 2024, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4
#2&Btr KD (RL) was US$383 mfbm, which is flat from the previous week when it
was $383.
That week’s price is down by -$47, or -11%, from one month ago when it was
$430.
Most S-P-F lumber and stud suppliers reported improving inquiry. Demand for
panels circled the drain, while Southern Pine sales couldn’t get off the
mat.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
Participation from buyers was demonstrably improved from recent weeks.
A more positive tone as takeaway was better on both sides of the border.
The cautious market sentiment persisted, with buyers and sellers both
waiting for the other side to blink.
Traders lamented that the market continued to be oversupplied.
This price structure was unsustainable; expect more sawmill curtailments if
weakness persists.
The spring freshet in Lower Mainland BC looked to be minimal this year due
to a small snowpack over winter thus atypically-low Fraser River.
MADISON’S BENCHMARK TOP-SIX SOFTWOOD LUMBER AND PANEL PRICES: MONTHLY
AVERAGES
Compared To The Same Week Last Year, When It Was Us$360 Mfbm, The Price Of
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr Kd (Rl) For The Week Ending May 13, 2024
Was Up By +$24, Or +6%.
Compared To Two Years Ago When It Was $1,100, That Week’S Price Is Down By
-$727, Or -65%.
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