After Three Years Of Extreme Volatility And Many Unknowns, North
American Construction Framing Dimension Softwood Lumber Price Trendlines
Started To Normalize During 2023.
As winter will come on and home building will slow at the end of the year,
there will be good insight to be gleaned from the lumber prices annual
trend. Indeed, it may be wise to ignore the extreme highs — and following
corrections downward — of 2020 to 2022.
In a future post, Madison’s will take a good look at what happened with
lumber prices in 2019, compared to this year. Looking back over a previous
“normal” year will help inform about what to expect for 2024.
Sawmills continued to work within a narrow price range, turning away buyers
who requested steep discounts.
In the week ending September 22, 2023, the price of benchmark softwood
lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$416 mfbm. This
is up by +$6, or +1%, compared to the previous week when it was $410, said
weekly forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber
Reporter. That week’s price is down by -$1, or 0%, from one month ago when
it was $417.
Overall demand remained pokey in lumber, studs, and panels. There was an
uncertain tone to every transaction, and buyers stuck to just-in-time
purchasing.
The cautious tone among buyers was unabated, but tenacious traders of
Western S-P-F in the United States found pockets of amenable activity.
Players wondered whether the end of September will show some hustle.
Positive housing permit news gave producers something to hang their hats on
regarding potential upcoming business, though only time will tell.
With the lumber market in a flat, searching mode, players thought it was a
good time for their customers to cover some needs into October and maybe
even November.
Canadian purveyors of Western S-P-F lumber described a confused market as
autumn dawned. Buyers continued to rely on just-in-time purchasing. Flexible
secondary suppliers and a smooth transportation pipeline encouraged them to
stick to that strategy. Players warned their charges about sitting on lean
field inventories as cold weather and potential supply and logistical
disruptions loom.
For their part, Canadian sawmills reported a mixed bag of pricing and
availability. Order files were anywhere from prompt to two weeks out, mill-
and item-dependent.
The pace of demand and sales in Western S-P-F studs remained pokey to
hear Western Canadian suppliers tell it. Caution reigned among buyers, who
largely turned to the secondary market to find their preferred combination
of tally, price-point, and shipping timeline. While stud mills maintained
two- to three-week order files and firm numbers, players noted a
slow-but-steady increase in prompt offerings of late. Similar to many other
corners of the market, no one wanted to make the first move.
Compared To The Same Week Last Year, When It Was Us$520 Mfbm, The Price Of
Western Spruce-pine-fir 2×4 #2&btr Kd (Rl) For The Week Ending September 22,
2023 Was Down By -$104, Or -20%. Compared To Two Years Ago When It Was $480,
That Week’s Price Is Down By -$64, Or -13%.
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